Watch the volumes on any retraces. If the volumes coming down are greater than the volumes on the corresponding upmove (look left on the chart to scope out the corresponding upside of the move), then the stock is in a collapse. If it pulls back on lighter volume than the corresponding upmove, it is buying time. So far, this stock is not collapsing.
The risk I take with a chart like this is that something crops up that changes the volume behaviors. That could happen, but thats what risk is all about. I read a chart like this by looking at the volumes at the pivots and in the waves. Lay out the pivot points, weigh the volumes, and decide what they mean. If volume relationships change, bail. If the quiet period is scam, bail at such a point as you decide that this is the case. Its your money and everybody should decide for themselves how much heat they want to tolerate. Bail if the waters get too hot or the price action too frothy.
Unless or until volume patterns change, I'm a buyer on any pullback. As a matter of fact, I'm camped out in the tall grass at key points all the way down to a 100% retrace. I could care less whether there are audited financials or broker backing of this puppy. Unless the overall volume environment changes and/or there is some event that crops up that changes the overall equation. I trade for a living and thats a key factor in how I do so successfully. Volume is the music of the chart.
As regards the chart on this puppy, it doesn't matter one iota to the performance of this chart in the next month whether there are audited financials or brokerages backing the company.... not for the next month, anyway. That element of risk is alraedy recognized in the chart itself, as far as I'm concerned. What matters is which side has the most volume... the forces going up or the forces going down. So far, the volume while we wait during the quiet period is not evidence of a collapse. Its just not. This puppy is not collapsing. Its as simple as that. And, in my system, if it pulls back on lighter volume, it is still not a collapse, regardless of the fib level of the pullback.
I trade a particular system that is volume weighted not balance sheet referenced. You, apparently, prefer a more balance sheet weighted system. More power to you. "Everybody to their own opinion," said the old lady as she kissed the cow. As regards the way I make my living, volumes tell the story.
Now, I'm watching like a hawk for evidence of changes in the background situation, and I think everybody should have their eyes on the horizon, watching for changes that are meaningful. Certainly, if October comes and goes and we are still in a quiet period, that would change the equation. If that happens, Paul will have "some slainin' to do", to quote Ricky Ricardo. But, its just something we'll have to see playing out in living color.
Back to a comment or two about your approach: Your fomula is more conservative than mine. It wants more built-in safety. If that makes you happy, great, but if thats what you need to be a shareholder in something, what the hell are you doing on the Spooz board? Its not like its a mystery what the reality is in Spooz... I mean, has there ever been a more helpful body of info in any iBox anybody has ever seen? I mean, really... what in haevans name is the nature of the secret downside here? There's not a lot unknown and there certainly is a boatload of disclosure, thats for sure.
Its a story stock, not a balance sheet play, so it is ridiculous to select as a yardstick a balance sheet approach to decision making. IMHO, the only reason to deliberately select the improper yardstick for measuring the riskiness of a pinkie is to create a logical argument for undermining confidence in that particular stock. Its going to take a lot of convincing for you to persuade me that you didn't choose to apply this wrong yardstick deliberately, knowing full well that you could paint a lousy picture of SPZI by forcing it to be maesured against a set of criteria you knew full well it would fail against. You may have done all this accidentally, but then maybe the sun will rise in the West tomorrow too LOL.
If you need audited financials and sponsership by brokerage, then I'm sure you can nose around and find many little companies you can feel comfortable in. But what in heaven's name gives you the right to assume that telling us, in the sage voice Moses used to read the tablets chiseled by the finger of God to the people in the Sinai, that we all better wise up about how risky Spooz is? Furthermore, its a no brainer that having you poke me in the eye with a sharp stick labled "no financials" isn't nice in any universe. Its not very likely that stabbing us repeatedly with this sharp-stick-factoid and yelling at us that we need to wise up is going to endear you to anyone.
So my opinion, and my professional trading practice, by the way, is that unless or until volume on the downside overwhelms that which we saw when the stock climbed from .002, then this stock is not collapsing.
Between you and me and the wall, I'm camped out at regular intervals on the pullback route, waiting patiently to see if it enters my target zones. If it does, and volume remains low, I buy. If it doesn't, and volume remains low, I'm just watching and waiting. The risk of this being a disaster because of the absence of audited financials and brokerage firm sponsership is far less than the risk of being in.... oh, lets say Apple, in the upcoming month, IMHO. IMHO, Apple is a slam dunk between now and October. Just read the volume action today. And, if I'm not mistaken, AAPL is repleat with audited financials and brokerage backing. So, filter your choices through a Pall filter of balance sheet ifo untill cows fly and I'll use volume analysis. I'm sticking with SPZI until and unless I see volume action that spells out that this company is a scam. As of now, I see collapse written all over the AAPL chart, wherein we have all the audited info our hearts could desire, but collapse is not written on SPZI's chart at this time. Its as simple as that, IMHO.
Have a good day.
Imperial Whazoo
AI
