Potential US landfalls
as per Dr Jeff Masters at Wunderground.com
98L
Not much has changed with the tropical wave (98L) in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles since yesterday, so I will mostly repeat yesterday's discussion. The system has a closed circulation and a small area of heavy thunderstorm activity on the west side of the center. Wind shear of 15 knots from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast are preventing thunderstorm activity from building on the east side of the storm. Several of the reliable models are forecasting that this shear will fall below 15 knots by Tuesday. There is some dry air to the northeast for the disturbance to contend with, but I expect 98L will be able to overcome this dry air and shear and organize into a tropical depression. Thursday is the earliest this would happen. The UKMET is the only model that develops 98L into a tropical depression.
98L is nearly stationary, and it will be at least six days before it will threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.
A strong trough of low pressure will pass north of 98L Tuesday and Wednesday, which could impart a more NORTHWESTERLY motion to the storm.
Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic
Several computer models develop a tropical depression off the South Carolina coast by Wednesday or Thursday, along an old frontal boundary. An area of disturbed weather has already formed here, and will bear watching over the next few days. You can track this using long range radar out of Jacksonville, Florida. The eventual track such a storm might take is highly uncertain--the NOGAPS foresees a threat to North Carolina, the UKMET and ECMWF has the system looping back and hitting Florida, while the GFS has the storm heading out to sea near Bermuda.
AI
