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Re: littlejohn post# 1493

Sunday, 09/02/2007 4:47:04 AM

Sunday, September 02, 2007 4:47:04 AM

Post# of 1538
LJ:

I know this isn't precisely what you were asking, but it is in the ballpark and it is worth repeating. I evaluated Mr. Sheep's picks for the first five PSLs and posted this early in PSL6.

Mr. Sheep doesn't include the top picks by percentage, but does (of course) include the top picks by popularity. Here is how they would have done as of May 21st, 2007.

MR. SHEEP TO DATE:

Shown below are the percent finishes and rankings for Mr. Sheep in each of the 5 previous PSL contests. In addition, I have shown where each Mr. Sheep is at AS OF TODAY. MR. Sheep1 and Mr. Sheep5 are down from the close of their contests, but Mr. Sheeps2-4 are up from the close of their contests. Amazingly, Mr. Sheep1 is negative the exact same amount as Mr. Sheep2 is positive.
      FINISH RANK  TODAY   CHANGE 
PSL1 67.76% 6 39.65% -28.11%
PSL2 67.92% 7 96.03% +28.11%
PSL3 3.98% 22 36.49% +32.51%
PSL4 11.55% 47 19.25% + 7.70%
PSl5 5.15% 64 -2.10% - 7.25%
----------------------------------
AVG 31.27% 29 37.86% + 6.61%
The moral of the story is that it hasn't paid particularly well to hold onto Mr. Sheep's stocks beyond the contest. Over almost 2 years and 5 contests, the average gain after the close of the contest by Mr. Sheep has been under 7%.

Len

Warren Buffet: 5 minutes and 17 seconds of pure, unadulterated, bulletproof, flawless logic.



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