Hurricane Stocks

[Manchild1]

From crown wather - Felix forecast to be a very strong hurricane - some models show west/northward movement over next 3 days while others have south - too close to call. What do you think

657
WTNT41 KNHC 011444
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007

RADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEARGRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THEWEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING. SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITHTIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILLBE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

ALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT IS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL/HWRF ONLYSLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST THIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST ALITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND
MY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.