Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

INTC E-waves: Topping or Topped?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02671657199

The long e-waves from the October '02 low form a multi-year WAVE B Zigzag.

Wave A (Zig) from Oct '02 to Jan '04 was clearly motive.

Wave B is open for debate.
Case 1 Zigzag from Jan '04 to June '06. I like this one the best because wave a and c are fairly proportional in both price and time.
Case 2 Triangle from Jan '04 to March '07. What I don't like about this is wave e is way too small.

Wave C
Regardless of the case chosen for Wave B, Wave C needs to be a motive wave. Each advance looks more like a bunch of overlapping double zigzags, so an ending diagonal is most likely forming.

wave 1 up Jume '06 to Nov '06
wave 2 down Nov '06 to March '07
wave 3 up March '07 to July '07
wave 4 down July '07 to August '07

The swiftness with which wave 4 struck makes it possible wave 5 topped today and truncated, along with Wave C truncating. Two large degrees of truncation plus an ending diagonal signal a very strong reversal, thus the crash scenario being imminent. Often initial support will be near the beginning of the ending diagonal. This would be the $17 area in INTC's case.

There is an alternate count for wave 5. For this to happen, there would need to be a pullback and one more small zigzag rally. Since wave 3 was larger than wave 1, wave 5 could be larger than wave 3. This would be a very rare expanding ending diagonal. This opens up the alternate count today finished the zig of a double zigzag.

Next week should be generally down regardless of the longer term wave count.