Well Walter good job and there is your starting point or baseline so to speak. Now the question is, what can one deduce from the July 30 PR? Taking the PR at face value one could assume:
1. Manaris has assumed $2.3M in capitalization from Impirium Partners of which Manaris used a portion to redeem the majority of convertible debt. Also it would appear on reasonable terms at 8.5% and redeemed the Y & Z warrants. In addition, Imperium also purchased a portion of the outstanding Notes directly from a certain holder, with the total amount of such disbursement amounting to $0.2 million. This can be interpreted as a positive and important event IMO if:
A. Avensys has unique, profitable products with demand and are currently booking significant sales.
B. Fraser balances operating expenses (OPEX) and makes a serious effort to redeem the balance of convertible debt.
2. Appears a baseline for the SP has been set at $.11 and IMO shouldn't drift much below that.
3. What besides the 8.5% interest is Impirium receiving?
A. Probably warrants so it is important to see how many and at what excercisable price. Assumption: Most likely will set a new baseline SP and hopefully higher.
4. According to the PR, half of the Y & Z warrants have been eliminated however according to your post and I assume Truc is the clearing house, Series Y & Z warrants went from 3.7M to 2.6M. Based on the last Q there were a total of 3,734,257 so simple math tells you that doesn't add up but the transaction may not be completed. There are still E, G, H, I, J & W warrants totalling approx. 12.6M and when you add the remainder of the Y & Z warrants you come up with approx. 15M warrants out there.
A. The good news is that the warrants are excercisable on the low end of $.35 and the high end of $.65. Again this is another positive if Manaris executes and if in fact they eliminated half the Y & Z warrants. You want to scrutinize this in the Q to separate fact from fiction. From the PR:
"The Company also redeemed half of the associated Series Y & Z Warrants (collectively the “Warrants”)"
Assumptions, Opinions based on Risk: I am sure everyone has a different way of evaluating a stock and for me it is keep it simple! That being said, do the positives out weigh the negatives? FWIW, and on face value of what I have read it appears the trend is changing p[ositive for Manaris for a number of reasons but the two primary reasons are.
1. Avensys has strategically placed themselves at the forefront of an optics revolution replacing conventional technology. Or in other words think of all the products that currently have coventional circuitry that will be replace by optics. I would encourage any and all to investigate the FTTX initiative to get an idea of the potential for optics.
2. There appears to be a serious attemt to eliminate convertible debt and that is a major positive.
So in the imortal words of Inspector Harry Callahan (Dirty Harry) " Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya punk? LOL
GLTA
