Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[KeithDust2000]

Klaus, I wanted to provoke that question, because I think it´s time to discuss the CC thoroughly and put things in perspective.

Let´s start with flash:

Flash accounts for about 50% of AMD´s revenue now. It is still losing money, the pricing environment is still extremely challenging. AMD is the market leader in NOR flash. Flash was supposed to be booming in Q4. Obviously not enough. AMD needs to get costs down. How? Technology transition to the next node cited as the main catalyst. Which takes time. Which costs money. Which is risky. And more money required to ramp up/equip JV3 etc. I see all those things costing loads of money. But I don´t see any of that coming back. When will the red ink stop? Maybe Q2? How much will they make then? 10 million? 20 million? Maybe demand is down again by then. Or INTEL starts dumping their products to regain market share, which is their plan (the latter part). Then there might not be any tangible profitability all year. But loads of costs. Even if things go a little better there, what earnings can we realistically expect from flash? Q1 is usually seasonally down, 10-15% in flash. AMD guides flat. Great. The reality is, the margins suck today. And until the possible gains from process transitions etc. can be realized, the market might just tank again.