Value Microcaps Motherboard

[cliffvb]

Len, Your logic is compelling, however in the september post that you referenced to, you pointed out that the US has had 3 recessions since 1970. Those were in 73-75, 80-82, and 90-91. When I look at a table that shows average annual oil prices, average annual oil prices did not drop in the first two recessions but rather they actually increased. They did drop during the 90-92 recession. It does appear that high oil prices may well have triggered all 3 of those recessions. Here are average oil prices followed by inflation adjusted oil prices. Longer term, oil prices have definitely been on an uptrend which I expect will continue into the future. (It is hard to believe that prices were only $3 per barrel in the early 70s which is still only $15/bbl on an inflation adjusted basis.-No wonder muscle cars were so popular back then)

1969 3.09 15.95
1970 3.18 15.52
1971 3.39 15.85
1972 3.39 15.36
1973 3.89 16.59
1974 6.87 26.39
1975 7.67 27.00
1976 8.19 27.26
1977 8.57 26.78
1978 9.00 26.14
1979 12.64 32.98
1980 21.59 49.63
1981 31.77 66.20
1982 28.52 55.98
1983 26.19 49.80
1984 25.88 47.18
1985 24.09 42.40
1986 12.51 21.62
1987 15.40 25.68
1988 12.58 20.14
1989 15.86 24.22
1990 20.03 29.03
1991 16.54 23.00
1992 15.99 21.59
1993 14.25 18.68
1994 13.19 16.86
1995 14.62 18.17
1996 18.46 22.40
1997 17.23 20.39
1998 10.87 12.66
1999 15.56 17.78
2000 26.72 29.54
2001 21.84 23.39
2002 22.51 23.78
2003 27.54 28.42
2004 38.93 54.93
2005 46.47 47.97
2006 58.30 58.30
Source US DOE


Here's a link to the table:

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp