MAJOR PREDICTIONS 1-3:
I made two major predictions in 2005 - one was wayyy too early if my premise (of a market crash) even turns out to be true at all. The prediction was that the markets reached a high in March 2005. Of course, if the DOW drops to 7,000 and sits there for years, a timing of getting out from March 2005 to December 2005 will look pretty good. Of course, if the markets never crash, I'll be in cash the rest of my life and that won't look too good (duh). Clearly, it was a poor prediction.
The other major prediction was a brilliant, genius, sensationally-timed, incredibly preceptive, rocket-science feat of lucidity. That was, of course, my declaration that the housing bubble had peaked and was headed for catastrophe - which, by the way, it isn't anywhere near as bad as it will get IMO. That prediction was made in June, 2005 and when I started the Bubble board - later changed to the Rubble board as that is all that is going to be left.
I will be making my third major prediction possibly late tonight or tomorrow. I intended to do it this weekend, but didn't have time - which is unfortunate because it would have looked better having been made over the weekend than it will look tonight or tomorrow, but the difference will probably be minimal in the scheme of things.
A few thoughts about predictions. By definition, a prediction is going out on a limb. Otherwise, it is merely playing the odds. What is the predictive benefit of that??? None. Therefore, if a person can predict unlikely events correctly 50% of the time, it is pretty good. Anything beyond that is exceptional.
Of course, any prediction might not have a clearly defined result and that could happen with Prediction #3. But, I will try to define the parameters such that it will be either right or wrong at some point in the future.
Len
Warren Buffet: 5 minutes and 17 seconds of pure, unadulterated, bulletproof, flawless logic.
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