Sharing Knowledge in Smallcaps

[timhyma]

For those that are not watching the yahoo board. If you would like to join the private club, please email me- Tim


This Week In BTS


Issue 13 12-09-01
If anyone has recieved this e-mail by mistake, or your a BTS member who wishes not to be included in the weekly mailing of this publication and wish to be removed from the BTS mailing list, please e-mail me, and i will remove you from our addy list, and our sincere apologies for cluttering up your mail box.

Hello BTS members, well alot of action in BTS this week, as there were alot stock ideas tossed around and some good money was made last week. If you havent been to BTS for awhile, come and share your investment ideas, and who knows, maybe you.ll find a winner or 2 posted by fellow BTS members. We like to start this weeks edition off with a report from the Economist magazine on the state of the economy.


“NOTHING contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits,” proclaimed David Ricardo, an early-19th-century economist. If so, America is in a miserable state: corporate profitability has fallen to its lowest level since the depression of the 1930s.In the third quarter of this year, the pre-tax profits of non-financial firms fell by 26% from a year earlier, to a level equivalent to 7.5% of GDP in the non-financial business sector. As recently as 1997, that figure was 12.5%. Profits have further to fall. Economists at J.P. Morgan forecast that average profits will drop at an annual rate of over 20% this quarter, leaving profit margins at their lowest for more than 60 years.Profit margins always shrink in recessions, but this time the squeeze is particularly severe. Because companies have so much excess capacity, they have little pricing power. Meanwhile, unit labour costs are rising more rapidly. Wages still outpace inflation by a wide margin, and productivity growth has slowed.America entered this recession with historically low inflation. As a result, nominal GDP growth is likely to be close to zero over the next two quarters, which will put even more pressure on profits. Wages, which make up two-thirds of total costs, typically move down only reluctantly, so profits take the strain.The 2.9% jump in consumer spending in October, the biggest increase on record, brought cheer to those betting on a strong economic recovery. The jump, though, largely reflected aggressive discounting, especially by car makers and retailers. Discounts may boost volume, but at a high cost to profit margins. Stockmarkets rallied strongly this week in hope that economic recovery, and hence higher profits, is around the corner. But even if the economy turns round early next year, a strong rebound in growth is unlikely so long as firms are saddled with excess capacity. And as long as nominal GDP growth remains subdued, so too will be the growth in profits. That means that stockmarket investors are likely to be disabused, and also that firms will be under pressure to improve their finances by making further cuts in investment and jobs. And that could prolong the recession.Stockmarket bulls point out that productivity growth has held up better during this recession than in the past, offering better hope of faster profits growth in future. The link between productivity growth and profits is more complicated, however. Over the past three years, as productivity growth has quickened, profit margins have actually fallen. As with earlier technology revolutions, the lion's share of the spoils from information technology is going to consumers, not producers.

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BTS Wisdom:

After philosopher William James lectured on the solar system, a woman told James he was all wrong . . . we live on a crust of earth sitting atop a giant turtle. James replied patiently, "Ma'am, if your theory is correct, what does the turtle stand on?" And she said, "You're clever Mr. James, but the first turtle stands on the back of a second, much larger turtle." "But what does this second turtle stand on?" he wondered. With triumph in her voice, the woman replied: "It's no use. It's turtles all the way down." It's impossible to reason someone out of an opinion they didn't arrive at by reason. If the facts don't fit their frame of reference, they'd rather change the facts. Like the three children who'd agreed to shovel snow from a walk for a dollar. A few minutes later they were back at the door. One said, "Mister, there's three of us and we can't figure out how to divide a dollar. Would you make the price 75 cents?"

BTS WISDOM: Facts liberate our minds when used to find truth. But facts further imprison our minds when used to prop up our biases. Whether facts add up to truth depends upon who's doing the adding.

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BTS REVIEW

BTS CHAT: Tim, Street, HT, Drex,Rick,Andy

BTS WINNERS: Tim( XING, BIGT ENE) Street(AVAN) Horsetrader(BIGT) Equalizer(HYSL) Canada(AIRG)



The Board

Post 6538 Street provides a good read about the January effect.
Post 6539 Street sells AVAN
Post 6555 EQ sells HYSL
Post 6548 Tim sells ENE

Post 6575 Tim looks for opinions about FIRE
Post 6581 EQ shorts SWFT

Post 6585 HT concurs with EQ,s short sell........Nice find EQ.I may join you on this one.I counted about 6 tops on this all the way back to Jan/99.Seems to crap out in the $22.50-23.50 every time,and having looked at the charts,it should do it again.

Post 6599 Tim sells XING
Post 6601 PLRP,s 3rd Q Financals

Post 6649 Canada on CYLK.......I have not purchased it yet. Been waiting for a good sized pullback. If it doesn't happen soon and the TA looks good I will definitely buy somewhere around 2.80 - 3.00.


Post 6611 Eagle provides DD for Reg Technologies Inc RRE-.Venture
Post 6615 Street buys ESR
Post 6624 Tim stops out on BIGT
Post 6625 Tim stop out of XING
Post 6628 HT covers on INVN

Post 6644 Gulfquest has this to say about STEM.....This looks to get more upward movement this month after some market downtrend on Friday... Bios in general should have a good December... not holding but would take a small position on Monday... Any thoughts on this one guys? And thanks Tim for the invite to this board... no BS just good solid info... Pitch

Post 6653 Tims watch list

Post 6655 BTS has a new board .................This is the first post to our spin off on ihub:

To steal a pharse from another board:
A thread is born.

Let's exchange notes on quality stocks, undiscovered gems, and POS BBs *BEFORE* the pump, *NOT* during the dump.

Request that you post your trades as close to real time as possible.

Also, follow the rules. Be honest- for we all meet our maker in the end. Bottom line- lets help each other to gain financial freedom- Tim

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=221937

BTS would like to welcome its newest member RothR13

Good Luck To All and God Bless America