Politics

[chunga1]

Turning the Screws on Iran
August 16, 2007
Author: Robert McMahon




The Bush administration’s plans to target the business dealings (IHT) of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the largest branch of the country’s armed services, set in motion what is expected to be a lively new round of diplomacy aimed at getting Tehran to suspend its uranium enrichment program. The administration’s point man on Iran policy, Undersecretary R. Nicholas Burns, earlier this month predicted “increasingly tough" international action against Iran because they refuse to negotiate and they refuse to slow down their nuclear efforts.” The United States has been the motor behind such action through a two-pronged approach involving UN Security Council sanctions and separate initiatives by the U.S. Treasury Department to pressure (BusinessWeek) Western financial institutions to cut off dealings with Iran. Activities in both arenas are expected to intensify in the next few months.

U.S. officials reportedly are still debating (WashPost) whether to target the entire Revolutionary Guard Corps, or only the Guard’s Qods Force. The force is linked to arming Shiite militants in Iraq and Taliban fighters in Afghanistan. Top U.S. intelligence official Michael McConnell recently told CFR.org there is "overwhelming evidence" of this, though Iran denies the accusation (VOA). Since the United States has few business dealings with Iran, the effect of the terrorist designation is expected to be further pressure on foreign governments and companies to end business ties with Iran. Karim Sadjadpour, an expert on Iran at the Carnegie Endowment, tells CFR.org that a powerful hardline clique in the Revolutionary Guards is reaping billions of dollars in contracts related to the oil industry and major infrastructure projects.

The reported U.S. plans heighten the intrigue surrounding Iran at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which got underway in Kyrgyzstan on August 16. Formed initially to cooperate against terrorism, the organization is increasingly seen as a counterbalance to U.S. influence in Central Asia. Iran has been invited to the summit as an observer and some reports say Russia will use the occasion to push for Iran’s membership (FT). But others dismiss this. Stephen Blank of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute tells RFE/RL the Shanghai group’s mutual-defense treaties are a chief reason Iran is unlikely to be admitted. “Iran would probably use this as an attempt to invoke the treaty charter for self-defense if an American or some other attack came against it and the Russians have already made it clear that they would be neutral,” he said.

But the mere presence of Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the summit will likely raise concern in Washington at a time when it is trying to heighten Iran’s isolation. The Power and Interest News Report, an independent analysis group, notes a number of energy deals were concluded at last year’s summit in Shanghai and group member China is intent on increasing oil imports from Iran. In the Asia Times, analyst Kaveh Afrasiabi writes closer ties with the Shanghai group could give Iran “breathing space” from pressures over its nuclear program. “After all,” he writes. “Iran can also play transit route for the Arab states of Persian Gulf seeking trade and investment in the landlocked Central Asian states.” And having the ear of veto-wielding Security Council members Russia and China doesn’t hurt either.

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