The interim analysis would be unlikely to achieve stat sig for a variety of reasons including low alpha and low number of events.
However, the events do not necessarily consist of mainly early deaths. Due to the extremely long enrollment time and the fact that D9902b did not start from scratch but from a protocol change only from D9902a, there may be many early enrolled patients who have lived long but have passed on by now too. They would contribute to the latter parts of the curves. David Miller asked a very astute question on closing and reopening centers at the last CC that was related to this phenomenon.
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