I have lots of thoughts on JAV, but no intelligent ones.
Seriously, though, JAV appears to be a great company, with 3 low-risk, near-term products (Dyloject, nasal ketamine, and Rylomine). They have a decent amount of cash in the bank--they should only need to raise cash once more, probably late next year.
Dyloject has considerable commercial potential, given the limitations of products sold in the US and in Europe. JAV's management has made predictions based on taking a certain percentage of the market away from opioids, which I think is unrealistic. In short, I think they've *overestimated* the market share they're going to take from opioids, but *underestimated* the market share Dyloject will take from other NSAIDs. Could be up to a $250M product, but I think $150-$200 is more reasonable.
The ketamine product is very low-risk--given that it only has to complete PK studies for approval--and has a very significant market in emergency medicine and the military, and a *much* more significant market in breakthrough pain. Could be up to a $500M product.
Not sure what to think about Rylomine yet. It obviously works, and works well. No ideas about market potential or applications.
On paper, management is incredible from a US perspective. Carr (the CEO) wrote current pain guidelines. Another member of the management team led the division responsible for approving pain medications.
I think investors are really gun shy about JAV because of how it's been trading. Nobody wants to get in to a stock that regularly gets smacked down 10% intraday. JAV's trading pattern is unusual, to say the least--I think right now it's mostly a vehicle for day traders.
In my opinion, JAV should be valued ~$500M+ within the next 6 months. We'll see what happens.
