Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[gofishmarko]

Next shoe to drop ?

This selloff seems extreme to me , even considering the fact that many small biotechs are getting creamed lately. The shorts may know something and the only possibility I can think of is something related to valtorcitabine.

I suppose the plan is to release data at a meeting in the fall , but it wouldn't surprise me if there was a " Friday Evening Surprise " before then , announcing a no-go for valtorcitabine.

Although the rationale for pursuing valtorcitabine may have been strong initially , I wonder if it is today , since valtorcitabine likely selects for the same YMDD mutants that are proving troublesome in terms of cross-resistance to other drugs. A better choice , in retrospect , would have been an Nt rather than an Ns.

Another issue re: YMDD mutants that I've seen mentioned , although only in theoretical terms so far , is the possible adverse effects that could follow in the areas of HBV vaccines and HBV diagnostics. Due to the 'multiple open reading frames' nature of the HBV genome -- and bad luck -- it turns out that YMDD mutations can result in variants in the immune-recognition domain of HbsAg , which , if they persisted and became widely distributed , could result in failure of protective vaccines and diagnostic assays. This whole area of HBV genetics is far from settled but it's something to be aware of.

I'm all out of IDIX now but might be tempted again if things get much worse. I see biotech bargains everywhere I look right now but the charts all resemble falling knives , and I've donated more than my share of blood trying to catch those in the past , so I'm sitting tight.