Is HLSH over or under valued? (From Yahoo)
by: corstrat
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/21/04 08:08 am
Msg: 172096 of 172148
omar2552- "Stock Value is in the eyes of the beholder".
Anyone who tries to tell you that there is some "magic" formula that values actual stock prices is brain damaged. Stock trading prices are probably based on something like 40% true value and 60% perception.
Had SCHB not had his monster seller yesterday pressing the stock to its daily low, below the prior days close going into the meeting, then the odds are pretty good that the stock would have continued to go up today from say a hypothetical $6.50 level. The old trading adage never fails. "Stocks going up make stocks go up. Stocks going down make stocks go down"
I have been asked many times on this board to give some sort of stock price estimate for a specific point in time. The reason I always refuse is that after 31 years in this industry, I have learned that "Wall Street has a way of eventually humbling everyone" and I sure have been a victim of that several times in the past.
IMO, just taking the 40% that I mention above, the stock is well undervalued based on pure fundamentals that we heard yesterday. This based on only 400 million shares with 650 million projected ebitda, $1.25 per share cash and their perennial money losing Diagnostics Division turning around. But does that mean the stock can't go lower over the next few days or weeks? Of course not.
I am sure there are many holders out there that believe they can outsmart the market by selling now and buying back at a lower price while still truly believing that we have a $20 stock 18 months from now. There are others who feel that they have some other stock that they can put the proceeds in and do better then 300 or 400% during the same period of time. So of course they are going to sell. We have seen this happen time and again in this stock. We saw it at .40 a share, we saw it at .90 a share, 1.90 a share, 3.00 a share and 5.00 a share. And we are going to see it at many more price levels over the next 18 months until we get re-listed and to a lesser extent after that time.
But in the "real" world. What we heard yesterday should have been "a beautiful symphony" to the ears of anyone who intends to hold this stock for the long haul. We heard that the numbers that were announced last July were now "right on" or a little better overall. Numbers and events that virtually no one really believed at that time. I say this because if most did believe it, the stock would have spiked to and stayed at this current level at that time. We had confirmed yesterday that there is no risk of BK, something that a few of us were trying to say back in April. We had confirmed that the company is quite profitable. We found out that the company has paid all back commitments which were not being paid in July yet has more cash in the bank today then it did back then. And we had specifically confirmed what several of the old-timers here have been telling us all along. That “ironically, old management didn’t seem to mind screwing the shareholders and SEC, but for some reason he didn’t screw with Medicare”.
So, in answer to your question, but speaking only for this beholder. Yes, The stock in my eyes is very undervalued.
