Biotech Values

[iwfal]

On GPCB’s most recent CC, they said the OS data would be mature in the “fall of 2007.” Now that the near-term reporting of the OS data has become an issue of consequence, the expected data maturity has been pushed back by about 9 months.

9 out of 10 biotechs make exactly this error - they project forward the event rate they see during active enrollment or shortly thereafter to predict when they will hit the event number. Yes, it is a credibility issue, but given that it encompasses 90% of biotechs it isn't a real separator.

FWIW.