Blade, re satra, without taking into account the Pazdur political factor, I would estimate that it's a slightly better than 50-50 chance of a positive panel vote. Seeing as how I believe that Pazdur will steer the discussion toward a positive view of satra, I think it's about a 70% chance of a thumbs up vote. The guy loves real big chemo trials like the satra Phase 3 and the drug is fairly effective with severe side effects...right up Pazdur's alley. Even if it's a thumbs down panel vote, I still think it gets approved.
Back to my DNDN strategy a couple months ago, I can't PM you as I'm not a paid member. I did take about 15-20% of my total DNDN position off the table after the panel meeting by selling all of my $10 calls instead of exercising some. My entire DNDN position was a short-term one, as I had sold out completely prior to the briefing doc release and bought back in on the day of the release and the next day. Taking more off the table would have left more of the position subject to a nearly 50% total tax rate. If my position had been a long-term one, I would have taken about 1/3 of my total position off the table. In addition, every hint from CBER prior to May 8-9 was positive toward Provenge, including the huge smiles on the faces of Witten, Goodman, and the rest of the CBER staff immediately after the 13-4 panel vote. The FDA had also never gone against a positive panel vote in a terminal disease.
