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Re: cliffvb post# 3697

Wednesday, 07/18/2007 11:04:26 AM

Wednesday, July 18, 2007 11:04:26 AM

Post# of 35788
More on upside in mining takeovers from Canaccord. This one includes Breakwater which would be valued at 72% above the current price using the cashflow multiplier that rio offered for Alcan:

When Rio Tinto (RTP) launched a friendly US$101/share all-cash bid (US$38.1 billion) for Alcan (AL) last week, it marked the second takeout announced at roughly 10x CFPS in less than a month.
Canaccord Adams Metals & Mining Analyst Orest Wowkodaw believes a new valuation level has been established for producing assets. Applying a 10x multiple (this would be equivalent to having invisibility or shape-shifting powers) to CFPS estimates for First Quantum (FM), Inmet Mining (IMN), HudBay Minerals (HBM) and Breakwater Resources (BWR), you would get potential takeout values of C$138, C$136, C$40, and C$6 per share, respectively, representing potential upside of roughly 27%, 42%, 46%, and 72% from current levels.

Industry consolidation is expected to continue, as most producers are flush with cash and in many cases have limited internal growth opportunities, while facing continuing delays and cost overruns in developing their own assets
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