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Re: rancherho post# 4576

Tuesday, 07/17/2007 8:48:01 PM

Tuesday, July 17, 2007 8:48:01 PM

Post# of 12660
re CEGE's VITAL-2 trial: did you get that complete enrollment by the end of the year info from a recent CEGE conference call? CEGE mgmt has always overpromised and underdelivered about the enrollment rates of both VITAL-1 and VITAL-2. Sometime last year, CEGE even said that they were focusing their resources on completing VITAL-1 enrollment at the expense of VITAL-2, which was rumored to be enrolling at a trickle.

The VITAL-2 trial design has always had the best chance of succeeding, IMO. I give VITAL-1 only a 5-10% chance of hitting stat sig, and certainly not on the first interim look. In fact, I think it's likely that VITAL-1 will be stopped for futility on the first interim look.

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