Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[rsox]

Dew would you care to revist your bullish scenario for tyzeka in light of its perforfance thus far...i would be interested in seeing how you think your initial bullish scenario and expectations are playing out and maybe you can shed some light on how your bearish scenario might be playing a role.

below is your prior bullish expectation...
What about Tyzeka’s market share in the above countries in 2010? I see the market being split approximately 1/3 for BMY’s Baraclude, 1/3 for Tyzeka, and 1/3 for everything else. The latter group includes residual sales of such older drugs as Lamivudine and Hepsera, early ramps of such newer drugs as Viread and Clevudine, and a small share for Pegasys. (I am figuring no market share for Anadys’ ANA975 or ANA380.)

Appling the assumed 1/3 market share to the projected $1.5B HBV market in the specified countries gives $500M in projected annual sales for Tyzeka. IDIX’s share of the 50/50 JV with NVS would be half of this or $250M. At a typical pharmaceutical margin, IDIX can be expected to net about $75M pre-tax from these sales.

To the above, one must add the royalties IDIX stands to earn on Tyzeka sales by NVS in the rest of the world, most importantly Japan and China. If this adds $50M in 2010, it would bring IDIX’s annual pre-tax net income from the overall Tyzeka program to about $125M.