Re: LAR ,AMLN
Marsico,Hambrecht,Goldman recent comments would disagree
(buy on weakness Meg Malloy said @40).. but analysts like your Opinion is respected."lofty valuations" is always nonsense.Its what the market will bear.
LAR is almost finished its 30 week trial.Its important to note that at the halfway point Amylin increased its plant investment (to mfg LAR) from 200M to 650 M in Ohio.
Although the trial is only blinded to Amylin itself,results can be known. The phase 2 LAR results of course blew everyone out of the water.Glucose control,weight loss effect were 50% better than the "gold standard" of 1% reduction.Also down sharply was the nausea effect that has turned off some Physicians and patients...why ? LAR is a polmer that slowly dissloves.the dosage; is constant and ongoing, hence the better glucose control etc seen were due to dosage "smoothing out"as oppossed to the twice daily injection now on the market. What is hinted from those I've talked to(and No I'll just post this,not refer to it)is that the current trial is TWICE as long as the Phase2 - 15 trial..so what are the results of an even smoother dosage?
You will see in a couple of months,and when the "Gold standard is eclipsed even more,investors will come to realize what those who attended the ADA meeting did.LAR will then become a first line therapy.
Orals are for GP's who know little about diabetes.The disease needs to be treated much earlier/ stronger than the pill so often prescribed as the patient drifts into pill land. 2/3rds simply fail orals and in the interm the disease progresses.I am describing a paraidgm shift in diabetes treatment.
At the ADA meeting,opinion was LAR Launch would be at the end of 2008.
Liraglitude? you mean the once a day injection with inferior results ?..sorry I just had to laugh that one off,even if they both arrive on market 2009,LAR will swamp Liraglitude.
AI
