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Re: apljack post# 49237

Tuesday, 07/03/2007 2:57:17 PM

Tuesday, July 03, 2007 2:57:17 PM

Post# of 253280
Universal Healthcare - Average age of mortality:

Just some examples of things that need to be pinned down before you can have an intelligent discussion about some aspects of universal healthcare and its benefits. When thinking about the commonly tossed around difference in average age of mortality we need to separate out the medical care issue from lifestyle issues:

1) Americans are substantially more obese.

2) Americans have a substantially worse diet (this is somewhat related to obesity - but not completely. The Japanese, for instance, eat a LOT more fish and a LOT less red meat so even for the same obesity they should live substantially longer.)

3) Americans have a much higher violent crime rate - and it tends to affect younger people so it should really hit the average.

4) Americans smoke less than Europeans or Japanese.

I don't know what the aggregate effect of all of these kinds of issues is, but it wouldn't surprise me if in aggregate the magnitude of this is on the order of difference in the average age of death. This goes to my point in an earlier post that many of these stats are suspect. Some really good economic-type analysis is necessary to see where 'improvements' really would be improvements. Otherwise this is just another example proving the truth of Mark Twain's aphorism about statistics.

BTW - Just in case people think I am making excuses to avoid universal health care I'll point out that I believe that there are cases where I believe it is probably 'the right thing' if the right system is in place - e.g. universal access to preventative care (vaccinations, yearly checkups, cheap treatment of chronic conditions (e.g. high blood pressure)), simple fix-it procedures (simple infections, casts, ...). Morally the right thing to do and all of this is either free or actually a money savings compared to the current system - cheaper to do in a clinic or doctor's office than in the emergency room. But I think the optimal mechanism for implementation is far from clear. And given that best available care universally is NOT possible I think that the exact boundary of further care is not at all clear - e.g. it isn't clear we want to make heart transplant a universally available procedure, or cancer treatment for someone with 99% chance of dying within 1 year anyway.

Clark

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