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Re: peeved post# 15859

Sunday, 06/24/2007 9:24:05 PM

Sunday, June 24, 2007 9:24:05 PM

Post# of 87668
"Someone else here said that the price rises before the revenues are here, but we haven't really seen a price rise...only a spike."

You might be referring to my previous post about the stock price of today being based on the anticipated earnings of tomorrow.

Loosely calculated, so please don't quote me on these earnings valuations, if the company earns $3M in 2007 and $450M by the end of 2008, I meant that the share price does not stay stagnant based on $3M for the entire year of 2008 and suddenly, by the end of 2008 jump up to whatever earnings multiple it has achieved. The perception on the street is not to wait until all the earnings are in before the share price reaches its corresponding value. Instead, at least 6 months well in advance of the end of 2008, the share price should reflect what the year's ends earnings would be.

With a generous estimate of 1.5B shares O/S to keep the math simplified, $3M in revenues with a conservative net earnings figure of $1.5M in 2007, would equal $0.001 per share. An earnings multiple of 10 would value the stock at $0.01, at 20 would be $0.02, and at 50 would be $0.05.

By the end of 2008, if the revenues are $450M (conservatively with just 1% of the market share), using the same share structure, and using 33% net would be an earnings of $150M.

That would mean that net earnings would equal $0.10 per share, conservatively, by the end of 2008. With an earnings multiple of 10, the pps would be $1, at 20 would be $2 and at 50 would be $5 per share.

What I am saying is that if the stock were to be trading at $0.01-$0.05 by end of 2007, and net earnings would bring the valuation to $1-$5 per share by the end of 2008,depending on the earnings multiple, the stock would surely reach that price many months in advance of the final year's evaluation, based on income coming in throughout the year.

Why the stock in my opinion is trading where it has been the past week or two is due to but not limited to the fact that the launch is yet to come, that the end of the 504 selling has not been officially announced (although e-mails from management have stated they are completed), and that the perception on the street is that they need to see confirmation of the launch and the building of customer base, even though it has all been spelled out in anticipation as a conservative estimation.

I fully expect a pop to at least $0.0055 with news of the launch and probably even to the 7's this go round, then profit taking and an advance to over a penny well before year's end. This is why it is a very compelling buy at these prices.

Stick around.


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Doc