Water

[atout]

Desperate for Water

The Western U.S. has been gripped by drought for nearly a decade, leaving states fighting over water rights. Are we headed for another Dust Bowl?
6/22/2007

How bad is the drought?
It started in 1999, and has spread to cover a third of the nation. Parts of the 11 Western states that have been hardest hit are experiencing the driest conditions on record, receiving only 20 percent of their normal rainfall. For California and Nevada, the last 12 months were the driest recorded since 1924. The volume of the Colorado River—a vital source of water for 30 million people in California, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah, as well as Mexico—has fallen by half. The snowpack in the mountains that melts and then replenishes rivers and lakes was only about 20 percent of the normal level this spring, and reservoirs are starting to dry up. “We’ve gone from moderate to severe drought,” said climatologist Bill Patzert of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, “and we’ve jumped to extreme.”

Is there relief in sight?
No. Climatologists warn that the drought is likely to only get worse. Over the centuries, the West has gone through periodic wet and dry cycles. The 20th century was actually wetter than usual, and the region appears to be entering a prolonged dry spell—and that’s without taking global warming into account. A recent study in the journal Science warned that because of global warming, summer temperatures in the sun-baked Southwest could rise by as much as 9 degrees by 2070, ushering in catastrophic drought conditions not seen since the Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. “We think of water as an unlimited resource,” said Donald Wilhite of the National Drought Mitigation Center. “But what happens when you turn on the tap and it’s not there?”

Will taps really go dry?
There’s still enough water, for now. But demand is rising sharply. Retiring baby boomers and young workers continue to flock to the region for its warm, arid climate and vibrant economy; indeed, the seven states that depend on the Colorado River for their water include five of the 12 fastest-growing states in the nation. Arizona in recent years has been growing at a rate three times the national average, with no letup in sight. Three of the nation’s 10 fastest-growing metropolitan areas sit in California’s Central Valley. Las Vegas has set a national record for explosive growth, expanding 1,200 percent since 1960. With these areas booming as water supplies dwindle, the water crises that have periodically hit the region for decades only stand to get worse. “We have plenty of water,” said Jack Flobeck, a Colorado Springs water consultant. “The people are in the wrong places.”

How has the drought affected the region?
Grazing land is drying up, forcing California ranchers to sell cattle or move them out of state. Wildfire season is hitting early, prompting Arizona to issue a desperate plea for out-of-state firefighters. Santa Cruz, N.M., recently imposed restrictions against watering lawns between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m., and Los Angeles officials have asked residents of the sprawling city to use 20 fewer gallons a day, by taking shorter showers and not watering their lawns. In upscale, do-good communities such as Santa Monica and Hollywood, there’s even talk of “water guilt.” So far, communities have avoided ordering residents to stop watering lawns altogether and flushing toilets during hours of peak demand. But that may not last. Many states and cities are now considering more drastic ways of conserving water. Las Vegas, for example, has budgeted $100 million to pay people $2 for every square foot of lawn they dig up and replace with drought-resistant ground cover.

Can conservation measures save the day?
Not if weather and population trends continue. “Maybe we can meet our needs now, but we don’t have enough water to double or triple our population,” said Launce Rake of the anti-growth Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada. “Instead of just hurting during a drought like we are now, we’ll be facing a catastrophic water shock.”

What about new sources of water?
Some experts say the government needs to start investing heavily in desalinization technologies that can turn seawater into fresh water. Another option is diverting water that would have been used to irrigate farms and sending it to cities. In Southern California a few years ago, farmers struck a deal with the Metropolitan Water District to let fields lie fallow so they could send more water to cities, in exchange for cash to cover lost crops. There is currently $2.5 billion in water projects underway in four states—including a 280-mile pipeline to Las Vegas—marking the West’s most intense effort to expand supplies in a generation.

Will this be enough?
No one can say. Scientists warn that extended dry spells more severe than the current one have hit the region over the centuries. Already, the seven states that share the Colorado River are fighting over its reduced flow. Montana filed a lawsuit in February accusing Wyoming of siphoning off more than its share of the Tongue and Powder rivers. Utah has vowed to fight the Nevada pipeline, which it says will grab water its farmers need. If the drought lasts, such fights will only get fiercer. “This is a situation that’s going to cause water wars,” said Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. “If there’s not enough water to meet everyone’s allocation, how do you divide it up?”