Tuesday, June 19, 2007 3:12:58 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=AMD:US&sid=asz8jccDv...
Lots of good insight here.
June 19 (Bloomberg) -- Hans Mosesmann, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates, comments on the outlook for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and competition with Intel Corp. He spoke in an interview from New York.
On Advanced Micro vs. Intel:
``In the processor world, it's a zero-sum game. There's two players and when one guy is struggling like AMD, it tends to benefit the other guy. Intel happens to be executing very, very well over the past 12 months.''
``It's kind of like a complete shift. A year ago, AMD could do no wrong. Everything they did in terms of products they introduced -- the execution of these products, the financial position -- it's all been transferred to Intel.'' Intel's ``gross margins starting in the third quarter are starting to go up.''
``They're executing flawlessly, which is very, very interesting. So, we think over the next two years, it's Intel's game and AMD is just going to struggle.''
On outlook for AMD shares, which are down about 34 percent this year:
``What's happening right now in terms of the road map doesn't look good and their financial position is weakening, not getting better.''
``Some of the things that we're seeing with them that actually are decent -- some design winds that are going to production at Dell and Toshiba in the notebook space -- those are lagging indicators. Those are design winds they got last fall.''
On Raymond James' rating on Intel:
``We have it as a strong buy. We think the stock by the end of the year will be $30.''
``As they execute, and as they bring out their new process technology -- 45-nanometer -- I think over the next several years, we look for this stock to outperform definitely the semiconductor industry in general.''
On what's ahead for AMD:
``They're going to have to find a way of doing business differently, perhaps outsourcing. They're restricted to some degree because they have a cross-licensing agreement with Intel that prohibits AMD from outsourcing. But everything's negotiable.''
``Intel doesn't want AMD to go out of business. Obviously, they need them, but they want them at a small percentage of the business -- not 30 or 40 percent -- but maybe something south of 20.''
``Until this gets finalized, we recommend certainly not owning AMD. If you have a position in it, sell it.''
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