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Re: alfabeta post# 48711

Tuesday, 06/19/2007 2:18:40 PM

Tuesday, June 19, 2007 2:18:40 PM

Post# of 252412
JAV

Couple of points to raise:

1) Owning JAV isn't like owning DNDN. There's not much risk in any of the drugs in their pipeline, so you're not going to get an overnight 100% pop.

2) Given that analysts (and not just the usual culprits of Punk and R&R) have targets ranging from $12 to $18 on a company that is not in imminent need of their services suggests that the market cap deserves to be substantially higher.

3) Each of the products alone isn't worth much, but at $250M market potential for each, it's not bad and essentially equivalent to sales of, say, bivalirudin (which supports a $1B market cap for The Medicines Company)

4) Not much has been said about this, but JAV represents a tasty takeover target for companies focused on acute care/hospital markets. A company like TMC could more than double their pipeline by buying JAV, and they already have an ideal sales force in place to sell Dyloject and other products.

I don't think $12-$18 is unreasonable considering the low-risk characteristics of JAV's pipeline.

That said, we should have gotten more of a pop today. As I'm writing this, JAV is actually down.

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