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[lentinman]

MONTHLY HOUSING STARTS: PART II:

I'm reposting this list below because I want to make another comment about it. Here are all of the peaks and valleys of housing starts since 1959.
Comments continue below the table.

 
 MONTH  Millions  MONTHS  PCT 
                   DROP   DROP 
  2-64   1.820 
 10-66    .843      32    -54%      
 ------------- 
  1-69   1.769 
  1-70   1.085      12    -39% 
 ------------- 
  1-73   2.481 
  1-75    .904      24    -64% 
 ------------- 
 11-78   2.094 
  5-80    .927      18    -56% 
 ------------- 
 10-80   1.523 
 11-81    .837      13    -45% 
 ------------- 
  1-86   1.972 
  1-88   1.271      12    -36% 
 ------------- 
  1-90   1.551 
  1-91    .798      12    -49% 
 ------------- 
  1-06   2.292 
  4-07   1.528      15    -33% (SO FAR)

What is interesting about this list is that every one of the 15 peaks and valleys (excluding the valley we are in because it is ongoing) happened between October and February - with one exception (May, 1980). Why is that? Who knows? I could speculate, but what difference does it make why? Even more interesting is that 9 of the 15 happened in the month of January.

Therefore, the odds of the housing starts bottoming before October are extremely slim. Thus, with May, June, July, August, September and October (at the minimum) left before housing starts bottom (and I'm predicting much longer), it's pretty easy to envision housing starts dropping below 1 Million. And, if they do, the home builders will be lucky (VERY lucky) to even HAVE a PE!!

Len