Bush for Prez in 2004!
What I have heard:
(A) Based on history, (ahem), from now to about the middle is flat to lower; last half - market will rise considerably.
(B) According to Zweig.. the party in power will do whatever it takes to stay in power - positive economic action in the year or two before the election. This may result in poor returns after the election.
He took "October-to-October" results. He found two years prior to the election year were best (2002/2003) - average 7% return (30 cases) (market rose 70% of the time).
The next best was the election year, 31 cases - 4.8% return, 71% of the time.
Post election - 30 cases - 3.3% reteturn 53% of the time; Midterm (rest) - +0.3% 30 cases up 53% of the time.
He is saying, the results show something but not a dominant strategy. Likewise don't bet against the market post-election. He gives examples where these strategies (both this year and next year) backfire.
So the question is -- has (can) Bush given everything he has available? From what I have heard, Greenspan will have to start raising interest rates - but at the same time, Bush needs to win and wants rates the same or lower.
I am not an economist, and I don't play one on TV.
SoB
"When you have to shoot, shoot. Don't talk."
Tuco (The Good, the Bad and the Ugly)
"An umbrella with holes is better than no umbrella at all."
Dr. Alexander Elder on using stops.
