Biotech Values

[Jonathan Robinson]

He seems to forget one whole layer in his analysis - ISV costs. They currently have a cost layer at their level equivalent to 10-15 cents and they will pay royalties to PFE (low single digits) on ISPH sales levels. His numbers appear to be the royalties per share to ISV unless I am mistaken - he does not give full details but my math when reading the article (in my head while scanning) suggests this.

Take 15-20 cents off his EPS numbers and re-do the math - not as compelling. Also, some folks see peak sales in the $50 MM range and others (rodman) think it could be a couple hundred for the first product. ISV is very overvalued given its cost levels if the lower numbers are right. I have a feeling $100-150 MM may be reasonable and ISV becomes interesting if it did not have so many shares and if its costs weren't in the way.

Jon