Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Big On Tarvy]

Pure Speculation

I have no idea what the IB sees.

FWIW, I can tell you what I see. My personal guess is we will have major media coverage on the PPHM story by late fall 2007, which is the time Ph II data will start rolling in on India Bavi Ph II cancer, India Cotara Ph II GBM and Bavi Ph I HIV co-infection.

Personally, I expect to see us at $3-4 by year end and above $5 by the March 15, 2008 CC.

I guess it will unfold like this: Summer Ph II clinical launches, combined with short covering, will take us back to $1.80 by August. This number will double by year end as serious media coverage anticipates the clinical data and AVID revenues are reported. Finally, if the clinical data comes in consistent with Ph I data on EITHER the Bavi Ph II AC trial OR the Cotara Ph II GBM trial, I see us well over $5. Double that if the data comes in well on both accounts or if HIV co-infection trial shows some efficacy.

The big difference is that when an IB analyst does due diligence and confirms Bavi’s potential, we move from being a pure “story stock” to being a new and exciting institutional play. I just can’t see that the May 31 rout would have happened without an IB having first received really solid reports from several analysts/Ph.Ds/medical docs.

That IB “endorsement” may very well be accompanied by handsome AVID revenues.

On top of the IB and AVID, which are quite foreseeable pps drivers, one could get into the crystal ball guessing game and add (1) a series of small regional licenses or co-development deals and (2) the China mystery.

All IMO