The Black Box

[wahz]

has anyone looked at the growth rates the analysts are using for their forecasts on these companies we follow here?? For every avnx, where they have NO growth built into the forecast, there is an emc, where they have a pop back up over one year and then flattish growth after that. I was just looking over this, as it's going to become a bit easier to go with e projections, as we turn the corner.

There is not one dollar built into these numbers that includes the spending shift that vz and sbc say they are going to do. We are truly getting the exact opposite behavior from these guys that we got in Feb of 2000. I obviously want to be right for my own sake, but the absurdity of the analysts blowing the real, sustained optical networking roll out is amazing, and just such a great example of how goofy markets are.

Cody Willard of the street.com is doing great work on these but I would also add that he has made big mistakes with regard to cellular, so always do your own dd.