folks:
I have gotten some questions based on z's predictions for the next couple years. As everyone knows, his variations leave room for almost any interpretation or conclusion, but my interpretation in general is that he sees a potential high of 2400 in 04 with a bad bear market starting late in the year, which will BEGIN with a leg of 20% down that will start in fall 04.
oh...
First let me say that I am largely out of worrying about market direction, and INTO worrying A LOT about investment theories.(Those who have stuck with me from summer 02(..I know its maybe 2 of you, but whatever..that's fine)should get the transformation. The first leg up, everything was gonna move and there was no sense worrying about picking one winner. We have finished this already. 2004-2006 is going to be all about nailing the biggest winners).
Anyway, any of you can look at the 1992 market and get an idea of what I expect this year to look like. My LARGE divergence with Z is here: I would fully expect that the boundaries of the next two years will be between 1800 and 2900, and that whatever the low is in the next 12 months, we would be 40-50% higher in the highs of 05. Although there is a lot of spinning that goes around here, it would seem my opinion is the polar opposite of z's, but not over the next 6-9 months. It's not that I want to be contrary but I am taking an investment view here that is at odds with the majority, and although I think we are in a secular bear, I think that in the next three years the definition of that is going to be stretched..a lot
Its too early to worry about 06, but I just have a feeling that the boomer bubble wich was suppossed to burst then got burst a little early;>) I just wonder what kind of surprise we are in store for...I really think we are going to see something that we haven't come close to seeing before, and it could be in either direction, or maybe a insane repeat of 98-01. I think there are lot of reasons to think that when we get back to a normal market in about 05-06, the world is going to be tossed upside down again...and this is why I think it woulkd be good time just go walk away...in the teens, there should be some extraordinary lows, probably as extreme as what we got on summer 02
AI
