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Re: stevo51 post# 1850

Monday, 05/28/2007 4:38:28 PM

Monday, May 28, 2007 4:38:28 PM

Post# of 9314
Yes interesting story - so many agencies doing predictions - all using different models - but per the article they are usually very close to accurate - I especially took interest in the part about landfall predictions >

Good hurricane forecasts are important for the insurance industry, which has a deep financial interest in assessing risk to coastal property. But an insurer doesn't care about storms that never hit the coast, no matter how big they are. There were only four hurricanes during the 1992 season (just as Gray and others had predicted), but one of them happened to be the catastrophic Hurricane Andrew.

Forecasters try to assess how many hurricanes will make landfall each season by looking at how certain climatological features—like the placement of a high-pressure area in the subtropics—might affect the path of tropical storms. Gray's team says there's a 77 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall in the United States this year.

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