The Black Box

[GjS]

My take on the decline is this ... the EMC renegotiated terms caused the intial sell off. Because of the small float shorters (or others) where able to 'excelerate' the selling and cause a very steep drop. Then margin selling took over on the break of $5.

In other situations with steep drops we usually get credit risk downgrades and fear of bankruptcy driving the stock price lower. Both are not in play here for NENG. We do have the tax loss and lawsuit potential selling - otherwise I believe all news is out in the open (at least I hope so).

Right now the forces that be must decide if they will let the stock rebound (without news) or will they try to drive it below $3 to cause the final cleansing of margin. My bet is there isn't much to gain from driving the stock price lower but without positive news from NENG they may well try to do it anyway.

The road to recovery may well be a long one but the gap in the $8.50 range is appealing - looking up that is (a double from here). The question is when? My guess is within 9 months ... but what do I know.

I know this adds no real value to the discussion but I thought I'd throw it in anyway.