Home > Boards > Free Zone > User's Groups > Value Microcaps Pick Six Lotto 06
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Monday, May 21, 2007 12:10:12 AM

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nsomniyak challenge. Like this idea. Maybe for the next suggestion we can name the couple of stocks that almost made our 6 picks. These are pretty much guaranteed to skyrocket! haha

Reasons for my 6:

DFNS.OB has great numbers for a stock trading at .57. Q1 earnings of .016/share vs. a loss last year. Q1 revenues up 114%. Decent balance sheet with .06/share in cash. Backlog up sequentially from $3.5M to $7.53M! They should have a monster Q2 coming up. Revenues of maybe $5-$6M with earnings of .02-.03/share. Stock could also get a pop on any sizable order PR.

AEY still cheap with earnings of .15/share last quarter vs. .09/share the prior year. Fiscal Q2 revenues up 29%. Think there is some confusion regarding the upcoming deadline. Company managed Q2 earnings of .15/share while only selling 9,000 converter boxes. They earned .14/share in Q1 and sold even less. Yet the stock is being discounted like a large chunk of their business is going away after the 7/1/07 deadline. These boxes accounted for $800K of their $16M in revenues last quarter. And 80% of those box sales were international, which will continue after the deadline. So everyone is worried about $160,000 in revenues last quarter? Business across the board is strong. Many customers needing to upgrade their bandwith requirements. Won't be sustainable, but they could see a spike in converter box sales in Q3...and possibly a .20 quarter.

SMID.OB had some nice numbers last quarter. Company earned a fully-taxed .082/share in their seasonally weak Q1 vs. .04/share last year. Q1 revenues up 21%, Q1 net income up 89%. Backlog down vs. last year, but up 32% sequentially. Seems like this stock should be trading closer to $3 than $2.

AYSI.OB disappointed last quarter, but they still would have earned nearly .01/share without the unusual tax expense. So think it has good recovery potential around .50 with the huge revenue growth. Q3 could be a lot better than Q2 considering the January shutdown, the addition of new employees, the booming mining sector, and the potential margin rebound. Think they could post Q3 earnings of .02-.03/share. Plus they've got an easy comp.

RADA has fallen back lately despite a strong Q4 turnaround. Company earned .06/share in Q4 vs. a loss the prior year, with revenues up 31%. CEO talked about "continued financial improvement" in the earnings PR. Also said in an interview earlier this year that after 2 years of investment, 2007 would be a breakout year (heard that one before!). Q4 may have been a total fluke (looking more likely after some large blocks have shown up on the ask recently), but they had a tiny profit in Q3 and they've got a VERY easy Q1 comp. So risk/reward still seems attractive on this underfollowed, thinly traded Nasdaq stock. Numbers should be out in a week or two. A repeat of Q4 will probably send it to $3-$4 from the current $2.17. Even if Q1 is a dud, results should still show a big improvement over last year and stock could shoot up later on a contract PR...which seems overdue.

CSPI had a stinky Q2. The reason being they didn't ship any of their Raytheon contract in the quarter. The remaining $13M is supposed to ship over the next 2 quarters. Plus it sounds like business at their other division is picking up. Could be looking at a .25-.30 quarter for Q3. They've got an easy comp, too. Factor in the $3.31/share in cash on the balance sheet, and this low floater could run to $12-$15 on a strong Q3 report.

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