to be honest with you, I dont know but my guess is that SPPI will ultimately do better...this is counterintuitive because SPPI only gets 10-13% royalties of revenues from future sales from GPCB...as you know, there is arbitration going on right now because, for lack of a better word, SPPI "screwed up" and sold the rights to GPCB and then GPCB sold euro rights to PHRM....good news is this, at least SPPI doesnt have to invest in the infrastructure to make and market the drug, they can just reap the benefits if Satra does get approved...also, SPPI has several other promising drugs in phase II for BPH and superficial bladder cancer...the mtk cap of SPPI is very small(160M if I recall) and GPCB's is close to 1B...I have taken a larger stake in SPPI than GPCB(hate buying those ADR's)...I think its quite likely that Satra gets approved for all the reasons mentioned today by the other MB posters...its sad but SPPI/GPCB mgt. just knows how to play the game better than DNDN mgt...guess surrogates for survival is more important than survival itself!
SPPI/GPCB will announce news next Monday regarding TTP and time onset to pain and its significance...wont be earth shattering news by any means but should shed some more light on the SPARC data...SPPI was supposed to announce OS data this summer but now they think it will be by years end...given this is a event driven process, this tells me that the pts(median survival should be roughly 10 months in this setting) are living longer than expected and it was a 2:1 randmonization in favor of Satra arm....but more importantly, this data wont be released before the PDUFA date hence it isnt a risk either way.
One thing for sure, if it does get FDA approved as everyone is expecting in July/Aug, the stock price of SPPI and GPCB isnt going down thats for sure.
AI
