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Re: None

Thursday, 05/17/2007 11:38:46 AM

Thursday, May 17, 2007 11:38:46 AM

Post# of 19037
Help for Blake: Suggestions please!

I have been buying some US stocks of late (testing some new methods). Assuming about a 3.5% stop loss from the purchase. I still need to develop other stops once the security starts moving higher -- and then slips (to lock in profits).

The larger problem is that I have two headwinds. First the stock price itself, then the rising CDN (and declining greenback).

So a stock that is not moving up is declining along with the greenback. My stop needs to be based on extra calculations to account for the CDN conversion (i.e. I cannot just look at the price for the stop % alone).

I want to buy a US stock and actually make money and if I am losing dump it - but obviously looking at the stock price alone is a massive flaw.

I am not really sure on how to handle this so I thought it would be good to query you all.

Options include
a) Not buying US stocks (not really a good answer)

b) Handle both stops separately. ie tag the price as 3.5% and the currency with a difference %. If either drop their respective % then sell the stock.
A mild change in currency would not trigger a problem. But with what I had lately - a drop from 1.18 to 1.10 would have gotten me out sooner (that was about a >7% drop in currency alone).
(The stock price actually was about $4 higher yet I was losing money due to the decline in US$). So I sell the stock lately which declined back to its buy price, and I am out $400 - because of the currency.

c) Get into some kind of hedging - ie for each $1US invested, invest $1 in an offsetting security. (it rises as the US$ declines). (will add transaction costs and reduce profits overall but will reduce risk too - hopefully more risk taken away than profits).

If I believe that the US$ cannot decline anymore, than the flood gate can open and I should be ok. But who knows.

Anyways any help would be appreciated - looking for ideas.

thanks
iSoB


"When you have to shoot, shoot. Don't talk."
Tuco (The Good, the Bad and the Ugly)

"An umbrella with holes is better than no umbrella at all."
Dr. Alexander Elder on using stops.

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