Wednesday, May 16, 2007 11:45:41 PM
Just a slight correction.. The 10K stated the 6.058B O/S was on 2/28/07.. so more like a month to gain the extra 430M shares. Believe it or not, this is better than I expected. I estimated 6.7B shares end of 1Q. It's all about costs. They have no cash, so this means they must rely on GGI conversions to keep them afloat. If you estimate their quarterly cost and estimate the average conversion price for GGI, you can project the O/S. I'm not surprised at all by the O/S number and, IMO, it's already factored into the pps. But.. be warned.. projecting out more than 6 months will give you nightmares, lol.
I could care less about O/S right now.. my real problem with the 1Q is the sub count. It's been 3 months since they projected 50K subs and breakeven by eoy. This rate of sub growth does not support that projection. We need to be adding 3K per month, not 4K in 3 months. Even for 1Q, this seems really low. Not to mention they really need about 85K subs to break even.
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