If what you claim is true, then it is much worse than I thought.
"The player only went on sale a few weeks ago and I'd bet that EDIG won't realize licensing fees until product is sold by gateway to the end user."
So what you are saying is all the reports of shipments selling out, overwhelming demand, the HSN selling thousands at a pop, are all wrong?? Overblown by enthusiastic longs??
I also find it interesting that you put forth the idea that EDIG doesn't get paid until the end user purchases, sounds suspiciously like a "consignment" business model, but if you say so. So reports of shipments selling out were not to "end users"? Interesting.
But maybe you are right, maybe there have been very few sales and EDIG negotiated such horrible terms that they do not get paid upfront by the OEM, do not get paid when a unit is produced, and do not get paid upon delivery to GW. So where does that leave us? With next quarters numbers!!
Next Q's numbers paint an even worse picture based on your assertions. A little math:
Guidance = $1.5M-$2.0M
Revenue from the F-T contract due next Q= $1M
Remaining revenue from all other sources, including GW= $.5-$1M
So the $1M from F-T abortion, which they have been projecting for "next quarter" for a number of years now, makes up the bulk of the revenue next Q and at the moment is still a one time shot and probably a loss leader at that. The remaining $.5-$1M in revenue puts it in the same neighborhood as this Q's $700k, not much progress That means the APS follow on orders, the HUGE digeplayer refurbish monies, GW revenue, and all new business is then expected to add only $150K to $300K a month for next Q?? The numbers just don't add, at least not to any significant, repeatable revenue source.
In other words, take out the F-T revenue, which EDIG has worked for like 3 years to earn, and all the new developments combined are going to generate less revenue per month than a eBay Power Seller brings in.
And if they are off on their guidance by a factor of 10X+ like they were last time, you have a real disaster on your hands.
I found the whole webcast amusing. Any time Todd is reduced to posting "This Rocks", you know ther was nothing there.
AI
