Wal-Mart Sales Are Worst in 27 Years
By KRIS HUDSON
May 10, 2007 9:45 a.m.
DALLAS -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. posted its worst monthly same-store sales results in at least 27 years, tallying a 3.5% decline in April due to this year's early Easter as well as generally challenging economic conditions for consumers.
Wal-Mart's 3.5% drop in the four-week period ending May 4 at U.S. stores fell below its earlier forecast of "flat" sales to a 2% decline. In a recorded phone message Thursday, Wal-Mart blamed bad weather last month in most U.S. regions and the early Easter on April 8, which pushed many Easter sales into March.
Same-store sales measure sales gains or losses at stores open for at least a year. They are a key indicator of the returns a retailer reaps on the capital it spends, and thus an influence on its profitability. Most publicly traded U.S. retailers are reporting their April results Thursday.
Wal-Mart's chief financial officer had warned a month ago that the retailer's earlier guidance for earnings per share of 68 cents to 71 cents for its latest quarter would be "a challenge" to achieve given what the company foresaw as a difficult April. The retailer didn't provide an update. It did, however, predict a sales gain for this month of 1% to 2%. Wal-Mart will report its results for its first quarter ended April 30 on Tuesday.
For the first quarter, Wal-Mart, Bentonville, Ark., reported a preliminary sales tally of $85.4 billion. Its 3.5% decline in same-store sales was comprised of a 4.6% decline at its flagship U.S. Division -- which includes its more than 3,200 supercenters, discount stores and Neighborhood Markets -- and a 2% gain by its Sam's Club division.
Technically, Wal-Mart's 3.5% April decline ranks as Wal-Mart's worst monthly showing in the 27 years it has reported such figures, handily outpacing the previous worst 0.6% decline in April 1996. In a broader context, the result was pulled down by scheduling quirks in addition to Wal-Mart's increasing difficulty in topping its own year-ago numbers.
Most U.S. retailers are reporting their monthly results a week later than usual this year due to a change in the National Retail Federation's calendar to account for a 53rd week last year. That resulted in retailers including the first week of April in their March results, which inflated the March tallies because March got the benefit of sales leading up to Easter, which fell on April 8. To wit, Wal-Mart posted a 4% gain for March to offset its 3.5% loss in April. Archrival Target Corp. notched a 12% gain for March and a 6.1% decline for April.
On a broader scale, Retail Metrics Inc., a market analysis firm in Swampscott, Mass., estimates that the 51 retailers it tracks will report an average gain of just 0.2% for April. That compares to a March gain of 6%.
Charles Grom, an analyst with JP Morgan Securities, found little upon which to build in Wal-Mart's latest monthly results. "While the Easter shift and unfavorable weather are to blame, the weakness in higher margin areas -- ala apparel and home [décor] -- are likely to take much longer to fix then the market is currently discounting, which could translate into continued ... shortfalls," he said.
Aside from scheduling changes, several economic factors likely hampered Wal-Mart and other retailers. Consumers did most of their tax-refund spending in March. Gasoline prices have risen 9% in the past month to $3.03 a gallon, further pinching cash-strapped consumers. "Housing market sluggishness has translated into much lower levels of mortgage equity withdrawal in 2006 and 2007 from what we saw in 2005," Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins said. Such withdrawals had been "a significant source of consumer spending."
Wal-Mart has cited additional factors in recent months. Its efforts to remodel sections of hundreds of stores this year have temporarily disrupted shoppers, spurring some to go elsewhere. And Wal-Mart still is suffering a hangover from its overly aggressive effort last year to broaden its base of customers to include more affluent shoppers. Specifically, it has labored early this year to sell at discounted prices piles of women's fashion apparel left over from last year's program.
Wal-Mart this year has opted to return its marketing and its merchandise to a focus on its roots: low prices on everyday items. Thus, if Wal-Mart isn't going to attract entire new classes of customers, it must fuel its sales gains by drawing more purchases out of the shoppers already visiting its stores routinely. Wal-Mart disclosed this morning that customer visits to its U.S. Division stores declined last month -- continuing a trend -- but the size of the average purchase shoppers made at its stores increased.
One new effort by Wal-Mart calls for making it easier for time-pressed customers to find what they need in Wal-Mart's stores. That primarily entails placing near the front of each store or within easy reach in its aisles the merchandise that store's clientele demonstrates it most often needs.
Case in point: The average Wal-Mart customer spends 21 minutes in the store per visit, but that customer finds only seven of the 10 items on his or her list, according to Chief Marketing Officer Stephen Quinn. The key to Wal-Mart's sales growth is making it easier for the customer to find that eighth and ninth item. "Making [the customer] productive in those 21 minutes is critically important," Mr. Quinn told the Bentonville/Bella Vista Chamber of Commerce on April 4.
It isn't working for Julia Russ, though. The 42-year-old federal contract administrator in Grand Prairie, Texas, visited a Wal-Mart in her city four times last month for groceries, pet supplies, toiletries and paper goods. But she often finds the store crowded and hectic. "The wait at checkout is getting longer all the time," Ms. Russ said. "I may lose patience and pay the difference for my time" to go elsewhere.
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