Biotech Values

[gofishmarko]

Re : VRTX CC

>>> additional I thought interesting was when asked if 950 would be the leading HCV therapy 10 years from now (or something to that effect) the answer was no. <<<


I thought that was a pretty candid statement when I first heard it but I think it just reflects the likely evolution of the HCV market post-launch of 950 . Combos being the wave of the future , and with so many candidates in the wings , means that market fragmentation will diminish the importance of any one drug.

If I recall correctly , he also hinted at the importance of getting to market quickly. HCV in the major markets is a "bubble". If 950 is widely adopted , and especially if it's effective in nonresponders , VRTX could capture a major chunk of the then-current HCV market in the first 5 years or so post-approval , leaving scraps ( relatively speaking ) to be picked over by the rest. There is a sizable rate of new HCV infections yearly in the U.S. and E.U. but I believe it is much lower than at the peak , and should decline further with better education and preventative measures.