Biotech / Related Ideas

[gfp927z]

Ruengies, Aiming, Another thing to remember is that the twin pivotal trials used only the best aspect of the first trial (only two arms - one arm 6 weeks on drug and one arm 6 weeks on placebo). That's why I still think the twin trials have a reasonably decent chance of succeeding.

If the downside risk was say a 50-70% temporary haircut, and the company would eventually recover to advance something else in their pipeline, I wouldn't be that concerned about betting on this binary event. But failure of the twin trials will mean the end of the company in short order, and one might not have a chance to salvage much/any of one's investment. That's due to the company's extremely bad financial position and the toxic financing in place. So this event is truly binary in every sense. The trials might work out, there's a reasonable chance, but it's clearly for gunslingers :o)