Wednesday, April 18, 2007 10:07:50 PM
BOTTOM LINE
The Commitment of Traders data show
that commercial traders (the smart money)
are net long stock index futures right now.
They are net short most of the time, often
as a hedge against other portfolio positions,
so seeing an actual net long position is
fairly rare. Since 2000, there have only
been two other instances when they have
been net long (March 2000 and October
2005), and in each case the SP500 rallied
strongly for the following six months. We
are seeing very strong liquidity right now
in every breadth indicator, and this is the
sort of environment which is tremendously
bullish for stocks. But we look for a brief
soft spot in the uptrend in honor of some
bottom signals due April 23-27, a period
that should also see weakness for bonds
and gold. Stocks should rebound strongly
out of that soft spot and continue the
uptrend into this summer and possibly
beyond. But bonds are still in a downtrend,
and utilities look particularly vulnerable.
What To Expect
Stocks are in a strong uptrend, but
should see the pause button get pressed
soon. We foresee a soft spot due April
23-27, something that may not rightly
be characterized as a bottom, but from
which stock prices ought to advance
strongly once again.
Bonds are still mired in a long price
downtrend which is due to last into
summer. Look for a minor bottom
April 23, but don’t expect much upward
progress from that bottom. More damage
lies ahead.
We keep waiting for gold prices to
decouple from the stock market, but so
far they seem to want to run together.
Look for a bottom in gold due April 24
to match a bottom in stocks due around the same time.
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