Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ardent jd]

MM, re:SNDK

Just a couple of caveats on SNDK. First, most of the sell-side models already assumed FY revenues of $1 billion or more, and of course the whispers were above even this, so the upping of guidance is not really news to anyone. Second, NAND flash pricing has definitely weakened the past 2 weeks. This is not the end of the world, as prices are still up 40% from the summer, and 30-40% annual price declines are normal here, as with most semi products. Demand is still strong, but there is a lot of supply coming on within the next 6-12 months also. FWIW, I personaly think the pricing outlook is healthier for NOR flash (which would benefit the likes of INTC, AMD, STM, and ATML), and even DRAM (since pricing has been bad, not too much incremental investment, and some capacity being shifted to flash and other products).

AJD