Among the various options to counter terrorism, the United States is also looking at a scenario that could turn Pakistan into a role model of a stable, democratic and prosperous country for the newly independent Central Asian Republics (CARs) and militants nurtured by poverty.
In a updated brief prepared for the US Congress on Pakistan-US relations on Sept 16, five days after the terrorist attack on New York and Washington, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) says "US interests strongly support a stable, democratic and economically thriving Pakistan that would serve as a model for the volatile and/or newly independent countries of West and Central Asia."
Noting US Afghan concerns, American deputy secretary of State Richard L. Armitage said as early as Aug 27 that "The United States is not interested in Pakistan coming more under the influence of Afghanistan. There has to be a way out for Pakistan. We are going to play an effective role."
The CRS report acknowledges the stumbling block in the US objective of setting up Pakistan as a growth model for the region and notes that "differing expectations of the security relationship have long bedevilled ties" between the two countries. It also records fears in official circles in Islamabad that military strikes on Afghanistan could destabilize Pakistan.
As it appears, the US shares this perception partially if not fully. Military attack on Taliban seems remote with every passing day. How the future US strategy would take final shape, would also depend on Islamabad's response to the US objectives and the compulsions under which Pakistan has to work to safeguard its national interests.
If military attack cannot bring the terrorists to their knees, the US interests can best be served by a strategy that fights poverty - the breeding ground for Islamic militants and terrorists. The United States has the experience of East Asian model of economic growth it has helped to create, to fall back upon.
Looking back, the US lost the Vietnam war but succeeded in containing communist movement in the countries on the periphery of China ranging from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, right down to Indonesia. The Asian miracle was wrought by economic assistance, foreign investment and trade - the region was provided free access to the US markets. And before the 1997 economic crisis, the Asian tiger role models inspired the rest of Asia.
The US and its European allies are looking at terrorism as the great threat to civilization. The EU External Affairs Relations Commissioner Chris Patten visiting Pakistan told CNN on Tuesday that "the fight against terrorism will shape the century we live in." And US President Bush says that it is a long unconventional war that will be fought in a variety of ways. "Military action is not an exclusive option."
Chris Patten who was the last governor of Hong Kong under British rule and has seen developments in South East Asia closely, says that the EU will consider providing Pakistan with economic assistance, foreign investment and freer access to the European markets. Even Russian generals who fought the Afghan war are of the view that an economic rehabilitation plan should follow affected countries, like the Marshal Plan for Europe in the wake of the Second World War. The US abandoned Afghanistan after the Russian defeat. The outcome is obvious for everyone to see.
The US and European strategy is being unfolded bit by bit to move towards a direction that had created the Asian tigers in an apparent effort to forge a model for economic growth for Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics. Pakistan, a Muslim moderate state, appears to be the natural choice, owing to its geographical location and its influence in Afghanistan.
The nuclear-related sanctions have been withdrawn. Washington is also looking into waiving the democracy-related sanctions with the roadmap for democracy unveiled by President Pervez Musharraf enough to satisfy the US policy-makers.
Iqbal Latif
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