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Monday, April 16, 2007 3:12:15 PM
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Like living organisms and processes in nature, stock markets and individual companies and their stocks go through processes of birth, growth, maturity, decline and death or rebirth. This becomes readily apparent when one looks at the long-term charts of stock markets and the long-term charts of the stocks of many individual companies. A knowledge of these cycles is of immense value in stock trading and investing, for if you know what time it is on the "market clock," either for entire markets or individual stocks, or both, you have a pretty good idea and overview of the big picture and are much less likely to be taken in or thrown by moves which run counter to the larger underlying trend.
PHASE 1: THE ACCUMULATION OR BASING PHASE:
The basing phase occurs either in the early life of a new company, as it "gets its act together" or after a period of prolonged decline in the stock price of an established company as the company reorganizes and retrenches following a period of adverse business conditions. This phase normally can last anything from a few months to a year or two and may last many years. Although the stock price may be relatively static throughout the basing phase, the technical condition of the stock is steadily changing until, at the end of the basing phase the stock is largely held by owners who have no intention of selling until they realize a substantial profit. Frequently, a well-defined resistance level develops at the top of the base area, so it is usually clear when a breakout from the base area to enter Phase 2 has occurred.
PHASE 2: THE GROWTH PHASE:
As business conditions for the company start to improve the stock "breaks out" of its long base, on increasing volume to enter the growth phase. The uptrend becomes self-reinforcing, as the majority of existing stock holders are unwilling to sell a rising asset and new investors must bid up the price to obtain stock...
Entire Article:
May 7, 2006
Clive Maund
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund050806.html
email: support@clivemaund.com
website: www.clivemaund.com
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