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Monday, 04/16/2007 12:58:58 PM

Monday, April 16, 2007 12:58:58 PM

Post# of 167
16:39 US TECHS: Continuation Driving Action for Dollar Index] Boston, April 16.
The Dollar Index had been developing a bearish continuation pattern for the past
few weeks as the contract moved lower from the February highs but then fell into
a sideways range. The recent breakout carries a measured move toward the 81.90
area, which the index came very close to reaching today. So for now we are
giving up on the short-term bearish bias and taking on a more neutral view,
at least for the near term.
A few reasons for this include the very extended levels of the bearish trend
signal on daily ADX. This measure is about as high as it gets and that usually
means an end to the trend. Also there's the possibility of bullish divergences
developing on daily momentum studies and finally the reaching of the measured-
move objective is often a sign of a stalling move. Dollar bears will likely be
on hold for the next several sessions.
Patrick.Fitzgerald@thomson.com /jmm

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