Biotech Values

[Jonathan Robinson]

[EDIT] Similar conclusion here as to gofishmarko who posted while I was devising my post. I did not factor in responders becoming non-responders during SOC arm - probably offsets fact I used RVR as proxy for SVR even though response on an LOC basis is better than RVR rates (not clear proof as all of the droppers COULD have relapsed and SVR on ITT is lower than RVR).



2. Increase SVR to say, 70% (we don't know yet; seems to be a reasonable number at this juncture)



I saw some analysis which indicates the likely rate is between 46%
(current SOC)and 66%. To do your own take 100% and subtract 11% (drop rate for all of Prove 1) and 21% for non-responders (non-RVR rate - this is but a proxy - may be a bit low given non-RVRs may become SVRs but data set overall shows more RVRs than SVRs, mainly because of dropouts though). This gives you an ITT SVR rate of ~70%. If you have relapses equivalent to Arm D, you are down to 46%. If the relapse rate is halved, you are in mid 50s.

Jon