Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[dougSF30]

sgolds, I think you're missing the point. Even your own research is showing you that these "experts" can't agree on which numbers are the magic points that indicate something important. Making "ranges" is no better. Why 33-38%? Why not 34.5-40%?

Are there general psychological pressures which affect the stock price? Sure. It's when these folks who want to sell you books attempt to build fancy "systems" with overly precise "pullback points" based on arbitrary percentages, that things go wrong. And finally, does past performance predict future results? As the mutual fund warnings tell you (a joke), NO!

So some poor sap may sell because you told him that a 27% pullback implies we're going to quickly fall to a (49.2 - pi^2)% of the orignial price. Unfortunately, that night, AMD announces that HP is shipping Opteron servers, and the next day, AMD is up 50%.

"Well, it doesn't work all the time."

Yes, and my question is, does it really work better than random, blind chance? Has anyone done RIGOROUS analysis (do you understand experimental design methodology?) of any of these techniques? I doubt it. They usually cite a few examples of where it worked, and ignore the mountain of cases where it would fail.

Doug