* Yesterday Medicure Inc. reported 3Q07 EPS of ($0.08) and indicated that its pivotal Phase III for MC-1 is on track to complete enrollment in November. We expect Phase III results from MC-1 in 1Q08. Medicure reported 3Q07 Aggrastat revenues of $2.52M. We find it encouraging that Aggrastat sales are up nicely quarter-over-quarter. Our long-term estimates, primarily driven by MC-1, remain unchanged. We have made minor changes to our near-term estimates based on a better understanding of near-term cost drivers.
* Approximately 90% of Medicure's R&D expenses are attributable to MC1. There were significant up-front costs in starting the MC-1 trial, which resulted in higher than normal R&D in Q3. R&D is likely to be high over the next few quarters as Medicure continues to enroll patients, after which we believe it is likely to decline from current levels.
* Due to its poor brand image in the US, we give very little credit to Aggrastat. However, we believe its brand image could be improved with additional data from head-to-head studies against competitors such as ReoPro and Integrillin. We were pleasantly surprised to hear on the conference call that Merck is running several large trials to prove equivalence of Aggrastat. Positive results from these trials could lower the risk for Medicure in running similar trials in the US, which could eventually lead to substantial sales growth for Aggrastat, in our view. We believe that results from these trials could become available as soon as at ACC next year. We are not altering our current Aggrastat forecast of no change in sales from 2007 to 2012.
* Management clarified that the p-value needed for success in the Phase III trial was close to 0.05 but lower than that, and at the same time much higher than 0.01. We believe this is a good revelation because there have been rumors that the statistical barrier for the Phase III trial is very high owing to the substantially low p-value that is required to be met.
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